Project Summary

The AERFOR-Project is granted within Horizon 2020 SME Instrument phase 2 and started in November 2016 with a term of two years. The target of the project for which Amorph Systems received funding from the European Union is to bring the solution successfully to the European and international market.




Early market validation

Amorph Systems has developed, a solution able to provide continuous, accurate, near-term forecasts of passenger flows.

A phase 1 market feasibility study conducted in 2015 identified several airports interested in a large-scale trial of the solution and confirmed their willingness to also use the commercial solution.

Increasing passenger capacity and decreasing airport expansion costs

The business case developed for Frankfurt Airport showed that the solution can increase maximum passenger capacity by 15% and passenger average throughput by 10%, leading to a 28% reduction in infrastructure expansion costs. In addition, the solution showed it can decrease passenger processing time by up to 20%, thus increasing retail dwelling time, retail spending and passenger satisfaction.

Early technical validation

The implementation at Frankfurt Airport demonstrated continuous forecasting of passenger flows for up to 200,000 passengers per day with a 1-minute refresh time. The accuracy of the prototype was verified at 90% for the nearest 2 hours, allowing operations management to avoid forecasted problems in time.

Technical performance

Unlike competitors using process flow-oriented models based on static mathematical values, the solution supports dynamic calculations based on the actual demand of passengers compared with the available resources.

This is critical for airport operations to get always accurate information based on the current availability and schedule of staff and the results of operational actions regarding the passenger flow.

Innovation potential

The novel technology is based on algorithms and approaches such as agent-based simulation, discrete event simulation, genetic algorithms, linear programming, regression modelling, decision tree modelling, statistics and probabilistic distributions and multi scenario analysis.

Interdisciplinary project team

Amorph Systems has assembled a solid team combining big data experts, software developers, airport specialists and business development experts.

The project supported by a complementary advisory board from the air transport industry, including key experts from airports, airport IT-suppliers and research institutions.

Large-scale user trials leading to early commercial deployments

The project plan is organized over 24 months.

The project will implement large-scale trials with 3 selected airports that should transition to commercial contracts once the trials have been successfully completed.

The project will also develop relationships with further airports that have expressed interests in deploying a commercial solution once available.

In addition, the project will explore the possibility to extend the technology to other business segments where flow predictions are critical such as road transport, sea transport, public areas or logistics.